ࡱ> WUPQXM ~bjbj== ~WWnm+ lLR84djdjdjhj|Hko~p(pppNsltTt,$ tts@Nsttpp`tN8pptփ2׼spn (iVZdj:|hk.s 0>>s Consulting to Government & Utilities Boulder Office: 762 Eldorado Drive, Superior, CO 80027 Voice: 303/494-1178 FAX: 303/494-1177  email: skumatz @ serainc.com Website: www. serainc.com; payt.org Revised / Updated EULs Based on Retention and Persistence Studies Results REVISED REPORT Submitted to: Marian Brown & Shahana Samiullah , Southern California Edison Authors: Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D and, John Gardner Skumatz Economic Research Associates, Inc. (SERA, Inc) With assistance from Quantec, LLC Scott Dimetrosky, David Mattingly July 8, 2005 organization of the report  TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143057" 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  PAGEREF _Toc109143057 \h 1  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143058" 2 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND  PAGEREF _Toc109143058 \h 3  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143059" 3 RESULTS OF THE ANALYSES  PAGEREF _Toc109143059 \h 5  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143060" 3.1 EUL Results and Recommendations  PAGEREF _Toc109143060 \h 5  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143061" 3.2 Comparison of Recommendations to Protocol EULs  PAGEREF _Toc109143061 \h 7  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143062" 3.3 Comparison of Recommendations to Previous DEER EULs  PAGEREF _Toc109143062 \h 7  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143063" 3.4 Comparisons between DEER and Protocol EULs  PAGEREF _Toc109143063 \h 7  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143064" 3.5 CFL Lifetimes: The CFL Operating Hours Issue  PAGEREF _Toc109143064 \h 8  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143065" 3.6 Measures with Limited Retention Information  PAGEREF _Toc109143065 \h 10  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc109143066" 4 Summary  PAGEREF _Toc109143066 \h 14  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this project is to provide an analysis of the current best EUL estimatefor each measure covered by the retention studies performed over the last several years, with documentation for the sources of the estimate and the reasons for its selection. This project represents a follow-on analysis to the work SERA did for the CPUC in reviewing the utilities' retention and persistence studies for the 1994-97 energy efficiency programs.  The projects output is an updated table of Effective Useful Lives (EUL), which can be applied to the Database of Energy Efficiency Resources (DEER) database and other uses. SERA's CPUC study was the primary data source for this work. The analysis consisted of four phases: Review new 9th year studies that have become available since the completion of CPUC review, Inventory the measure lifetimes addressed in the studies, Assess the ex post estimates to identify the most reliable of the EUL estimates, and Review analysis results with DEER working committee to develop new EUL recommendations. The study inventoried 301 EULs for a variety of measures, and 204 had an evaluation score of C or better in the CPUC study. Although all results were inventoried, only studies with a C or better score were considered a potentially reliable source for updated EULs. A Table that presents the results for those measures with the most reliable retention results is included in this report. The Table includes: background on the measures, ex ante EULs (both DEER, where available, and EULs from the protocols), a recommended EUL estimate based on the most reliable ex post EUL estimates and review by the DEER subcommittee. The recommended EULs were compared to the Protocol EULs and to the previous DEER EULs. The recommendations suggest changes from the previous DEER values for the following measures: Air conditioners Commercial EMS Duct testing and high efficiency ducts Residential furnaces and furnaces in residential new construction CFLs Electronic ballasts T8 fixtures, and Refrigerator recycling. The recommendations suggest changes from the Protocol EUL values for the following measures: Duct testing, and high efficiency ducts Electronic ballasts, Pump repairs, and Energy efficient refrigerators. The study was requested to identify the underlying operating hours assumptions embedded in the retention studies for CFLs, and provides information related to updates of lighting lifetimes. Finally, the study examines those measures without sufficient retention data to provide or update EULs for the DEER database. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Last year, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) requested a detailed third-party review of retention and persistence studies, program milestones and accomplishments in support of shareholder earnings claims. The work was performed as part of the review of the IOU applications under the current consolidated AEAP proceeding. The consultant team reviewed retention and realization studies and analyzed the approach, data, methods, and conclusions associated with 54 reports representing 94 studies. The work derived scores for each study, based on an evaluation of: conformance with CPUC protocols, sampling approach, sample sizes and data collection procedures, modeling approach, estimation method, and consideration of alternative models, and results and implications. The purpose of this follow-on project is to provide an analysis of the current best EUL estimatefor each measure covered by the studies, with documentation for the sources of the estimate and the reasons for its selection. This project represents a follow-on analysis to the work SERA did for the CPUC in reviewing the utilities' retention and persistence studies for the 1994-97 energy efficiency programs. The work product includes an updated table of Effective Useful Lives (EUL) to use in updating EULs in Database of Energy Efficiency Resources (DEER) and other applications. SERA's CPUC study was the primary data source for this work. The work included four phases: review of new retention studies, inventory of measure lifetimes for the measures included in the retention studies, assessment / evaluation of the EUL values, and development of recommended values based on analysis and consultation with DEER committee. The SERA Team reviewed and assessed five new (9th year) retention studies provided by SCE. The team used the same analysis criteria used to examine the 94 original studies examined, and assigned scores to key aspects of the study, including data collection, methodologies, modeling, and the other aspects of the work reviewed in the initial project. The team used an approach consistent with the previous work, including the same analysis tools, definitions, and criteria as applied to the earlier study. This assured consistent interpretation of the assessment criteria and consistent application of the criteria to the studies and their results. The SERA Team reviewed the EULs from the inventory of studies, and ranked the EULs from all the studies. The study inventoried 301 EULs for a variety of measures, and 204 had an evaluation score of C or better in the CPUC study. Although all results were inventoried, only studies with a C or better score were considered a potentially reliable source for updated EULs. The SERA team examined the results from the most reliable study, the range and variation in the pattern of the results from high scoring studies, and compared to the previously-accepted EULs. We inventoried the specific measures examined in the retention study, program, sector, the estimated EUL and its confidence interval, and the scores assigned for overall. For those with reliable (C or better) EULs, the EULs were compared with DEER EULs (where they existed) and EULS from the protocols. For those cases in which no change from the ex ante was recommended, that confirmation of the existing EUL was included in the hierarchy. The SERA team reviewed the results and prepared a table of recommended EULs, based on the quality of the studies conducted for that measure, the results, and the consistency of results (where more than one study is available). These recommendations were presented and discussed on a conference call with the DEER working committee, and the revised recommendations are presented in the next section of this report. RESULTS OF THE ANALYSES This chapter presents the results of the EUL review and update project. EUL Results and Recommendations The table presents information in seven columns: ID number and category of end use (columns A and B): The end-use codes include air conditioning (AC), HVAC, clothes washers (CW), EMS, lighting (L), motors / drives / pumps (M), process (P), or refrigeration measures (R ). Measure name (column C): This is the measure name provided in the retention study. Sector (column D): The abbreviations are R/residential, C/commercial, RNC/residential new construction; I/industrial; and A/agricultural. DEER newly adopted EUL (column E): These values (in years) are based on the information from our analysis of the most reliable retention studies and review by the DEER committee and represent the recommended values for updated EULs. Interim / previous DEER EUL (column F): These values (in years) are the values from the previous version of the DEER database. The a priori EULs used / presented in the retention studies (column G): These are the values used as ex ante values from the protocols used in the retention studies. The table includes only those measures for which ex post EULs were estimated from studies that received evaluation scores of a C or better, and omits those measures for which studies showed significant variation in results. Table 3.1 Updated DEER Measure Lifetimes (and Comparison to Protocols EULs) Identification / InformationYears**YearsYearsA. New Row NumB. End UseC. Measure Name from EUL StudyD. SectorE. DEER Newly Adopted EUL (2005)F. Interim / previous DEER EULG. A Priori Protocols EULs1ACA/C Central, <65 kBTU/HR, Sokut-SYS/SNGL PKGC1515152ACAir Conditioners with SEER >= 11.0R1815183ACCentral Air ConditionersR1815184ACEvaporative CoolersR1515155CCooking measures , AssortedC12n/a126CGas CooktopsR20n/a207CWGas Dryer StubR 1818188EMSInstall HVAC EMSC1415149HVACAll Energy-Efficient Furnaces Installed Through Energy Advantage Home ProgramR18201810HVACDuct TestingRNC18152511HVACHeat PumpsR151512HVACHigh Efficiency Furnace RNC18201813HVACHigh Energy Efficiency DuctsR18152514LCFL Bulbs -- see second sheet using results from logger studyCIATable 3.3varies5.815LCFL Fixture: no add'l descriptionC12161216LCFL Fixture: no add'l descriptionR1616n/a17LElectronic BallastC11161018LElectronic BallastCIA11161019LElectronic BallastI11161020LElectronic BallastNRNC11161021LT8 FixturesC11161122LT8 FixturesCIA11161123LT8 FixturesI11161124LT8 Fixtures ; lamp or ballastI11161125LT8 Fixtures or ballastR15161126LT8 LampsC5n/a527LT8 LampsCIA5n/a528LT8 LampsI5n/a529LLDelamp/reflectorsCI 11n/an/a30LLOptical Reflectors- new constructionI,NRNC12n/an/a31LLOptical Reflectors- retrofitI,NR10n/an/a31LLHID fixture: Interior, >= 176 Watts lampI16161632LLHID fixture: Interior, 251-400 Watt lampC16161633MAdjustable speed drive, application unknownA10n/a1034MAdjustable speed drive, application unknownC10n/a1035MAdjustable Speed Drive: HVAC fan, 50 HP MaxC16n/a1636MPump repairA11n/a937PInjection molding machinesI15n/a1538PPlastic extusion equipmentI15n/a1539PProcess coolingI15n/a1540PProcess equipment insulationI15n/a1541RRefrigerator RecyclingR106n/a42RRefrigerator - Energy Efficient; 20% more efficientR18182043RRefrigeratorsR181820 . Comparison of Recommendations to Protocol EULs The ex post EULs for the most reliable studies were compared to the Protocol EULs. Those new values that differ from the protocol EULs are highlighted in yellow in column G. The updates, suggested by the results of the 3rd through 9th year retention studies, include: Duct testing and high efficiency ducts, with a recommended decrease in EUL from 25 to 18 years; Electronic ballasts, with a recommended increase from 10 years to 11 years; Pump repair, with a recommended increase from 9 years to 11 years; and Refrigerators, with a recommended decrease in EUL from 20 years to 18 years. CFLs also represent a change; however, this change (see Table 3.3) derives from an analysis of hours of use, rather than results of individual retention studies. This is discussed in more detail in Section 3.5. Comparison of Recommendations to Previous DEER EULs Another important application of the work was to provide information to update DEER EULs. The newly adopted EULs that differ from the previous DEER values are highlighted in yellow in column F. Changes include: Decrease in recommended lifetimes for duct testing and high efficiency ducts from 25 to 18 years. Increase in lifetimes for electronic ballasts from 10 to 11 years. Increase in EUL for pump repair from 9 years to 11 years. Decrease in lifetimes for energy efficient refrigerators from 20 years to 18. Again, recommended changes in lifetimes for lighting are derived from an analysis of operating hours (based on a separate lighting logger study) rather than the measure lifetime analysis. Comparisons between DEER and Protocol EULs Historically, there were differences between the earlier DEER values and the Protocol EULs. These comparisons are provided in Table 3.3. The new recommendations bring the estimates to the same values for both purposes. Table 3.2 Comparison of Historical DEER and Protocols EULs EUL was longer in previous DEER database than ProtocolsEUL was longer in Protocols than DEER databaseEMS Residential furnaces and furnaces in residential new construction CFL fixtures Electronic ballasts T8 fixturesResidential air conditioners Duct testing High efficiency ducts High efficiency refrigerators  CFL Lifetimes: The CFL Operating Hours Issue Finally, the study was requested to identify the underlying operating hours assumptions embedded in the retention studies for CFLs. Virtually none of the studies included this information. The exceptions included: Study 529D, an assessment of the 1994 non-residential commercial CFL manufacturers reate persistence study, which indicates the outside bulb operating hours averaged 4,581 hours of operation annually, and 21+ watt bulbs were used only 1,675 hours per year. Study 922, a sixth year study of the 1994/95 Residential Appliance Efficiency Incentives Program, which noted that in PY 94 bulbs were assumed to be on 3.7 hours per day, which equates to an EUL of 7 years. Further research revised this assumption to 3.3 hours per day for PY 95, which translates to an EUL of 8 years. Study 535 is a retention study for the 1994 residential compact fluorescent bulb manufacturers incentive program, and includes regression outputs related to the impact of operating hours assumptions on lifetime assumptions. None of the other retention studies addressed operating hours. In some cases, the retention studies were unclear about whether the analysis addressed bulbs or fixtures, and appear to have blended the lifetimes. However, a review of the available work suggests that lifetimes for some of the lighting measures bear revisit mainly because lifetimes are dependent on operating hours. The result is that the new lifetimes for CFLs have been and are being revised to depend on operating hours assumptions. A summary of EULs suggested based on operating hours variations is presented in Table 3.3. These figures may be further revised, because they are largely based on one study; however, it represents the best information on CFL lifetimes to date. Table 3.3. CFL Measure Lifetimes Based on Operating Hours from Logger Study Building CodeMarket SectorAnnual Operating HoursEUL (in years )EPREducation - Primary School1,4405.56ESEEducation - Secondary School2,3053.47ECCEducation - Community College3,7922.11EUNEducation University3,0732.60GROGrocery5,8241.37HSPHealth/Medical Hospital8,7360.92NRSHealth/Medical - Nursing Home8,7360.92HTLLodging Hotel8,7360.92MTLLodging Motel8,7360.92GSTLodging - Guest Rooms1,1456.99MLIManufacturing - Light Industrial2,8602.80OFLOffice Large2,7392.92OFSOffice Small2,4923.21RSDRestaurant - Sit-Down3,4442.32RFFRestaurant - Fast-Food6,1881.29RT3Retail - 3-Story Large4,2591.88RTLRetail - Single-Story Large4,3681.83RTSRetail Small3,7242.15SCNStorage Conditioned2,8602.80SUNStorage Unconditioned2,8602.80WRFWarehouse Refrigerated2,6003.08Residential Avg Daily Operating HrsEUL (in Years)(based on 8,000 hour manufacturer rated bulb life)Indoor Screw in 2.349.4Outdoor Screw in3.17.1 The CFL lifetime values from the previous DEER and Protocols lifetimes are compared in Table 3.4 below. Table 3.4. Summary Table of Old and New Recommended CFL Lifetimes CFL-Comml / Instit / Agric.CFL ResidentialNew / Recommended DEER LifetimeDepends on operating hours (see table 3.2)Table 3.2Previous DEER Lifetime5-9.49.4-16Protocols Lifetime5.8-14n/a Further, changes in CFL lifetimes may also be warranted due to technology change. Interviews with technology and engineering staff at CFL bulb manufacturers indicate that there have been three main areas of change in CFL technologies over the last 5-10 years. These changes include: The phosphor coating used inside the bulb uses better materials than the earlier generation of bulbs. The base of the bulb / ballast uses electronics instead of magnetics, and There are higher industry-wide performance standards in place now than earlier., In summary, lifetimes for lighting require additional study to refine estimates based on operating hours, to clarify lifetimes for bulbs vs. fixtures, and to update for technology improvements. Measures with Limited Retention Information The updated lifetimes in Table 3.1 were based on the best information available from the 3rd through 9th year retention studies. However, for a wide range of other measures, reliable information to confirm or update lifetimes were missing either because the studies did not receive a C or better, or because no retention studies included the measure. There is some difficulty matching DEER measure categories to the measures included in retention studies (the names in the retention studies were far less detailed than those listed in DEER). However, a list of those types of DEER measures without reliable studies, or with no studies is provided in Table 3.5. Table 3.5. DEER Measure Categories With Limited or No Retention Studies End Use CategoryMeasures with Retention Studies (C or better)Limited Retention Studies (lower than C or Highly Volatile Results)DEER Measure Categories with no retention studiesAir compressorsAir compressors (I) Change / modify air compressor (I) Air compressor system controls and storage (() Compressed air system enhancement (I) Compressed air system with controls, (valves), and storage (I) High efficiency multistage air compressors (I) 200 HP Air compressor with demand expdr (I, NRNC) New copper compressed air piping system (I) Repaired compressed air system leaks (I)Air conditioningCentral A/C various ( C) A/C SEER>11.0 (R ) Central air conditioners (no further description) (R ) Evaporative coolers (R )241 ton cooling tower (NRNC) 600 ton central chillers with and without ASD (NRNC) A/C SEER > 11.0 (RNC) A/C SEER 11.0 (RNC) All energy efficient A/C (R ) Chiller, 1W/VFD,w W/o VFD and various other high efficiency chillers (NRNC, I, M, C) Chiller, centrifugal high efficiency (NRNC) Water cooled chiller (various) (C, NRNC)High efficiency centrifugal chillers, various High efficiency reciprocating chillers VSD centrifugal chiller Gas absorption chiller Evap cooling indirect central Evap cooling indirect packaged Clean condenser coils Cooling tower for packaged system Two speed cooling tower fans VSD cooling tower fans Direct evaporative coolers (R,C) Indirect evaporative coolers (R,C) Direct indirect evap cooler (R ) High efficiency systems -- air cooled, water cooled, package, terminal, and heat pumps, various Efficient HVAC motors supply, return, cooling tower fans, various Residential split systems, various 13 18 SEER A/C heat pump, various (R )Dryers, washer, water Gas dryer stub (R )Point of use water heat, various Circulation pump time clock High efficiency water heater Faucet aerator Heat pump water heater Pipe wrap Low flow showerhead High efficiency water heater, gas High efficiency water heater, electric High efficiency small HW boilers Efficient clothes dryer, gas Efficient clothes dryer, electric Energy Star clothes washer, various Tank insulation fiber blanket Chilled water reset Hot water reset Variable flow chilled water loop VSD chilled water loop pump Variable flow hot water loop High efficiency gas water heater Gas tankless water heating Circulation pump timeclock retrofit High effic. Large / medium gas water heater Water side economizerCookingCooking measures (no further description) (C ) Gas cooktops (R )Fryer (C ) Oven (C )High efficiency gas fryer High efficiency gas griddle High efficiency electric fryer Hot food holding cabinet Connectionless steamerControls and HeatingHVAC EMS (C ) EE furnaces installed through energy Advantage Home program (R ) Duct testing (RNC) Heat pumps (R ) High efficiency furnace (RNC) High efficiency ducts (R )EMS (direct digital) ( C) Controls (I) Catalytic thermal oxidizer with heat exchanger (I) Duct burners and HRSG rerating (I) Duct sealing and testing (R ) Energy efficient HVAC process (R,NRNC,I,M) Gas humidifier (I) Greenhouse heat curtain (A) IPA column #3 with heat recovery (I)Reducing overventilation Air to air heat exchanger Rotary heat recovery Economizer packaged Economizer central system Economizer maintenance Efficient gas furnace High efficiency large boilers High efficiency small steam boilers Efficient water source heat pump Hydronic heat pump variable flow valve Time clock Setback programmable thermostats Duct insulation material Basic HVAC diagnostic testing and repair; Advanced HCAC diagnostic testing and repair Condensing AFUE furnace, various (R ) Duct repair and leakageLightingElectronic ballasts (CIA) Multiple studies of CFLs fixtures and bulbs, combined. Volatile, unclear measures. Multiple studies of T8 and electronic ballasts. Volatile, unclear measures. Multiple studies of HID measures. Volatile, unclear measures. Lighting EMS (I) CFLs, various (1-CF13H, 5-10watt CFL) ( C) CFLs fixtures (CF13Q hardwire, CF26, CF7, CF9) NRNC, A, I,M,C) CFL Fixtures (no further description) (R) T8, various configurations (2ft, 4ft, other)(C,I) Delamp ( C) Delamping / reflectors (CIA) Electronic ballasts and T8 electronic ballasts, various (C,I,A,NRNC,M) Exit sign kit LED ( C) HID/HED Fixtures, interior, various ( C,I,A) Lighting EMS (I) Lighting Power Density (NRNC) Occupancy sensors ( C) Optical reflectors (various) ( C,NRNC, C, I,M) Reflectors with delamping (I) T8 lighting fixtures and/or ballasts (no further description) (C,I,A)Metal halide, various HPS, LPS mercury Occupancy sensor, wall box Occupancy sensor, plug loads Timeclock Photocell LED exit sign (new) Electroluminescent exit sign (new) Electroluminescent exit sign kit Indoor lighting High or low load reduction (various) Occupancy sensor pack, various Daylighting controls, variousMotors and pumpsAdjustable speed drive (ASD), application unknown (C,A) ASD HVAC fan, 50 HP max Pump repair (A)800 HP aeration blower (CIA) 1 HP 1000 (NRNC) 1HP 250 (NRNC, I,M) 200 HP ASD secondary chilled water pump (NRNC) Adjustable speed drive (CIA) ASD on Air handler ASD/VSD on 6 VAV Systems (NRNC) ASDs 600 HP influent and pump (NRNC) ADSs AHUs (NRNC) ASDs on 4 HP sewer pumps (NRNC) ASDs on 7 SA and 7 RA fans (NRNC) Efficient heat exchanger pumps with drives (I) Efficient pumps (A) Oil well pump off controller (I,A) Pump retrofit (I) Pump system improvements (A) Redesign booster pump / efficiency 86% (A) Variable speed pump motor ( C) Variable speed pump motor drive ( C) VAV Fume hoods (NRNC) VAV with occupancy sensor (NRNC) VFD for high lift sewer pump (A) VFD on trickling filter pump motor (A) VFDs on 40 HP sup fans and 20 HP return fans (NRNC, I, M) VSD/ASD for motors (NRNC, I, M)Efficient single speed pool pump Efficient two speed pool pump VAV box VSD supply fan motors Fan powered mixing boxes Efficient motors chilled water loop pumps, hot water loop pumps, cond. Water loop pumps, various.Process-relatedInjection molding machines (I) Plastic extrusion equipment (I) Process cooling (I) Process equipment insulation (I) Ultrafine aeration diffusers panel Process equipment insulation Process cooling Plastic extrusion equipment Natural gas catalytic thermoforming heaters Molding machine insulating blankets Injection molding machines In line shear mixers Heat recovery process Electric aqueous degreasers EDM machines electrical discharge machinery Automatic ingot loaders with rotary actuatorsRefrig-erationRefrigerator EE, 20% more efficient (R ) Refrigerators (no further description) (R ) Refrigerator recycling (later report)Some refrigeration categories Top mount freezer, various Side mount freezer, various Bottom mount freezer, various Freezer recycling Refrigeration grocery, various Walk in fan motors, Display fan motors Heat recovery Display case measures night covers, auto closers, tempered, lighting control Air cooled condensers to evaporative condensers Multiplex systems with mech subcooling (various) Low and medium temperature mechanical subcooling, various Floading suction pressure Floating head pressure, various Zero heat reach-in glass Refrigerator grocery, retrocommissioning Refrigeration measures warehouse retrocommissioning Warehouse evaporative condenser Warehouse evaporative condenser and floating head Variable speed compressos Low temperature subcooling Floating suction pressure Floating head pressure, various (warehouse) Shell MeasuresR-19 wall insulation Infiltration High performance glass Attic insulationCeiling, roof insulation Air curtain Light colored roof Low SHGC windows (various) High performance glass, various Ceiling insulation (R ) Ceiling batt insulation (R ), various Floor batt insulation, various (R ) Wall batt insulation, various (R ) Wall batt and rigid insulation, various (R ) Wall blow in insulation Low income weatherization with and without evap cooler While house fans Default window with sunscreen Single pane glass with reflective film; with spectrally sensitive film, with standard film Double pane clear windows (clear, tint, various), (R )Other10 crossover piping and valve controls 5000 pound / hour CO2 vaporizer change / add equipment Crossover piping DSM bidding programHigh efficiency copier (various) Vending machine controller Plug load load reduction, various Summary The previous sections described the process for reviewing and updating the EUL estimates from the extensive array of retention studies conducted under the CPUC protocols. The study inventoried 99 measure retention studies, 301 EULs for a variety of measures, and 204 with evaluation scores of C or better in the CPUC study. Revised EULs / lifetimes were developed and presented in Table 3.1. These values will be incorporated into the updated DEER database and posted on the web for use in program planning documents. The study also itemizes those measures with adequate and inadequate information on EULs from retention studies.  Based on review of retention studies conducted by SERA with assistance from Quantec. Skumatz, Woods, and Dimetrosky, Review of Retention and Persistence Studies for the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), October 2004, prepared for California Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA. Work conducted by SERA and subcontractor Quantec, LLC.  Op. cit. Skumatz et al. October 2004.  Skumatz, et.al., Review of AEAP Milestone Incentive Awards, Program Years 1999-2002, September, 2004, prepared for CPUC, San Francisco, CA. Work conducted by SERA and subcontractors Summit Blue Consulting, NWRG, blue Consulting, and NAA.  The current list of the DEER 2004-05 Project Advisory Committee includes: Tim Drew (ED, CPUC); Ariana Merlino (ED, CPUC), Christine Tam (ORA, CPUC); Sylvia Bender (CEC); Mike Messenger (CEC); Bill Pennington (CEC); Rob Hudler (CEC); Andrew Sickels (SEMPRA); Jennifer Barnes (PG&E); James Turnure (PG&E), Leonel Campoy (SCE); and Shahana Samiullah (SCE).  For example, in a few cases, one study might estimate an EUL of 6 years, and other might show 20 years. These results were considered to have too much variation and were not included among those that are considered reliable for purposes of this assessment. Note that for many measures for which new recommendations were made, there were 1-2 reliable studies (C or better) for the specific measure and sector combination. There were rarely more than 2 studies per measure / sector combination.  Source: CFL_EUL.xls from Gary Cullen, Itron, 5/12/05  In addition, there have been changes that have affected the implementation / acceptance / adoption of CFLs. Particularly, the range of designs now allows CFLs to replace incandescents in almost any fixture application issues related to size or shape restrictions have been addressed by the range of designs / shapes currently available. In addition, there were pin-based CFLs, which incorporated a ballast in the base, and the bulb was just a bulb. The other option was screw-in, which incorporated combined ballast and bulb. The pin-based technology, which required an adapter if retrofitted into a standard fixture, is losing in the marketplace and is being phased out. (interpreted from interviews with manufacturers and industry professionals).  There were early problems with high / early failure rates from off brand CFLs, which affected perceptions about CFLs. Better industry standards are attempting to address this issue.  The savings update work is being conducted by RER of San Diego.  Retention studies include only a subset of measures included in the program, and include only those measures that, in combination, represent 50% or more of the savings. This leads to the omission of many measures.  Based on evaluation of studys quality from Skumatz, Woods, and Dimetrosky, Review of Retention and Persistence Studies for the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), October 2004, prepared for California Public Utilities Commission, San Francisco, CA.  Or unclear matches to retention study measures.     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